Severity modelling specifically: large loss loading, spliced distributions, extreme value theory, dispersion modelling, and the frequency-severity independence assumption that most GLMs get wrong. 6 articles.
Liu & Meng's PowerBurr adds a fourth parameter to Burr XII that decouples body shape from tail heaviness. We explain the coupling trap, what the fix actually does, and when UK p...
The hardest part of fitting a GPD is picking the threshold. A new Bayesian nonparametric approach eliminates the choice entirely — and tells you what fraction of your book has i...
Burr XII's body and tail are controlled by the same parameters — you can't fix one without breaking the other. Liu & Meng's PowerBurr adds a fourth parameter that decouples them...
Scenario modelling for UK motor bodily injury claims under whiplash reform uncertainty — Taylor separation, severity distributions, and conformal prediction intervals.
Three recent papers on EVT and ML — from generalisation bounds for tail learning to Bayesian nonparametric splicing — and what they actually imply for UK severity models.
EVT for UK motor large loss pricing: censored GPD for open TPBI claims, profile likelihood CIs, excess layer pure premiums. insurance-evt Python library.